Poker Outs Explained: Should You Call With a Draw?

Sam pushes all in. You've got four hearts. You need one more. And the whole table is staring at you. You can know whether to call in about 2 seconds without a calculator. Count the cards that save you and multiply by four. Nine hearts left* 4 is 36. You make that flush about 36% of the time. A little better than one and three. By the end of this, you'll know that number for every draw you'll ever have at a home game. The spot where the trick lies to you and the one comparison that tells you if the call is worth it. The cards that save you are called outs. and out is any card still in the deck that turns your hand into the winner. So, count them. There are 13 hearts in a deck. You're holding two and two more are on the flop. That's four you can see. So, there are nine hearts left that you can't see. And every one of them makes your flush. That's nine outs. And the best time to count is the second the flop lands, not when it's your turn. While everybody else is looking at their own cards, you've already got your number. So, when Sam shoves, you're not doing math with the whole table watching. You're just checking it against the bet. If two cards are still coming, the turn in the river, you multiply your outs by four. If only one card is coming, you multiply by two. Nine outs on the flop with two cards to come is 36%. Nine outs on the turn with one card left is 18. The real numbers are 35 and 20, so the trick is close enough to use with chips in front of you. But here's where almost everybody at a home game gets it wrong. Times 4 only works when you get to see both cards, and that only happens when Sam is all in because nobody can bet again. When Sam just bets and he's still got chips behind, he's going to bet again on the turn. So, you're not buying two cards, you're buying one. Unless somebody's all in, use times two. That one change keeps you from paying twice for the same draw. Now, the straits. Danny holds the nine and eight and the flop comes 7 6. Any 10 gives her a straight and so does any five. Four 10 plus four fives is eight outs. That's an open-ended straight draw. About 32% with two cards to come and 16 with one. Now, give her the same nine and eight on a jack. 7 two only a 10 works. That's four outs, a gutshot, 16% with two cards and eight with one. It's half as good as it feels and it's the draw people fall in love with. Then there are the ones people forget to count. Marco has ace king and the flop is 962. He's got nothing yet, but any ace or any king probably gives him the best pair. Three aces and three kings are left, so that's six outs, about 24%. And when Nick has a pair of fives and he's waiting for a third five, there are only two left in the whole deck. Two outs is about 8% roughly one time in 12. So a small pair is not a reason to call a big bet. Now here's the spot where the trick lies to you. Adrien has the nine and eight of hearts. And the flop is the seven of hearts, the six of hearts, and the two of clubs. He's got a flush draw and a straight draw at the same time. Nine hearts plus the three 10s and three fives that aren't hearts is 15 outs. Time four says 60%. The real number is 54. Once you get past eight outs, x 4 starts to overshoot. So you take off one for every out over eight. 15 is 7 over. 60 - 7 is 53. And that's right where it should be. And then there are draws you can barely see. You've got the ace and king of clubs. And the flop has just one club. You need a club on the turn and another one on the river. And that only happens about 4% of the time. So a backdoor draw like that is worth about one extra out. And it should never be the reason you call. And some outs aren't outs at all. Go back to Danny's straight draw. 9 and 8 on 7 6 2. But this time, two of those flop cards are hearts. And Sam has called every bet. If the 10 of hearts or the five of hearts comes, Danny makes her straight and Sam might make his flush. So, those two don't count. Eight outs just became six. Before you multiply, ask one question about every out. If this card comes, could it help him more than me? Knowing your chance is only half of it. The other half is the price. If Sam bets half the pot, you're paying one chip to win three. So, you need to win one time in four, which is 25%. If he bets the whole pot, you're paying one to win two. So, you need one time in three, 33%. Now go back to that allin. The pot was 10 chips and Sam shoved 10 more. So that's a pot-siz bet and you need 33. Your flush draw is 35. So you call. But if he does the exact same thing on the turn with one card left, your nine outs are only about 20% and that's a fold. So let's play one hand all the way through. You've got the seven and six of spades. And the flop is the king of spades, the nine of spades, and the four of hearts. That's nine spades left. So nine outs. Adrien bets half the pot. You need 25% and he's not all in. So it's times two 18 on the numbers. That's a little short, but Adrien has called every river tonight. So when your spade comes, he's going to pay you. And that makes it close enough to call. The turn is the two of clubs. Now Adrien shoves a pot-siz bet. One card left, nine outs, about 20% and you need 33. You fold and you keep the rest of your stack. And that's the part the math can't see. Sam calls everything. So when you hit, he pays you off on the river anyway. And against Sam, you can chase a draw that's a little short. Nick only bets when he has it, and the second a third heart lands, he folds. Against Nick, you can't chase because when you finally hit, there's nobody left to pay you. So, screenshot this. A flush draw is nine outs. An open-ended straight is eight. Two overcards are six. A gut shot is four. And a pocket pair hoping for a set is two. When someone's all in on the flop, it's times four. And anything else is times two. Past eight outs, take one off for every out over eight. And a half pot bet needs one and four, while a pot-siz bet needs one and three. And when the night's over and the chips get counted, nobody should need math to settle up. That's why I built HG Poker. You log the buyins and rebys as you go, and at the end, it shows exactly who owes who. It takes no bets, holds no money, and moves no money. It just keeps the records. So, tell me in the comments, what's the worst draw you ever chased and did it hit? And if you're still deciding which hands are worth playing before the flop, watch starting hands for beginners Next.